The probability of a specific
outcome and presumption 
that the outcome result is 
measured in terms of the 
odds is fine providing the 
odds are the true odds.

The odds are numbers 
designed to show, what the 
speculator will receive for 
his outlay when betting on 
a certain event. It does
not matter whether the 
event is a horse race, or 
price fluctuation on the 
foreign exchange currency 
market.

To be guided by odds formulated by bookmakers is to be guided by
their necessity to balance their books because of the public
weight of money invested for a particular result to happen. This
is their key to the measurement of the odds.

To presume that odds formulated this way is a pointer to a
winner is a delusion. Only true odds can do that.

So what are the true odds as opposed to just odds created by the
market/bookmaker?

Supposing there is a horse running in a race which is called
Father Xmas, and because it is Xmas time, a lot of people will
back it, liking the name. Their money will create a demand, and
the odds will shorten. These are not true odds representing the
winning chance of the horse. These odds are market oriented odds
which do not represent the actual capability of the selection.

So what are the true odds needed in your corner to point to
achieving a good result?

It is the process of weighing up what will not happen rather
than what will. Finding out the real form of the selection based
on a series of past performances under various conditions and a
host of other data will direct us in the right direction. It
means engaging serious attention to any minute point and having
the ability to go by that.

Applying this to foreign currency, means that one cannot be
constantly under the spell of how the market behaves, but must
take the numerous circumstances into account to form an overall
picture.

There are times when governments support their currency which
might appreciate as a result, but often only for a very short
time. That sort of thing does not necessarily signal to buy that
currency, and does not represent true odds. However, a temporary
following of a trend can often be productive, and spotting it
early can mean getting true odds in your favour.

Realizing that certain currencies tend to behave differently at
holiday times is most important. Currencies even tend to behave
differently at certain times of the day. Learning to spot this
is helpful, and is a plus.

The days when certain important data is being released are
imperative to bear in mind. Also are the days, when important
people are due to make a speech.

Negative news about the currency you wish to beat can be
positive news for the currency you are holding. 

Looking for the negative points about the currency you are
opposing can be sometimes more productive than looking for the
good points about the currency you are holding.

Ideal conditions are when the positive data lifts your currency,
and the negative data drags down the other currency at the same
time. Now, you are set to fasten your safety belt with great
pleasure. That is also the time, when the foreign currency
exchange game is like any other game, only more so.

I have often maintained that bookmakers seek to have the odds in
their favour, and I do not know of any poor bookies. It is
prudent to always follow their example. 

The foreign currency market is very strong and full of players.
There is never a shortage of money to take out for the well
informed, and there is a bottomless black hole for the reckless
punters to throw their money into, especially the ones with
certain systems.

I used to know a fellow who rarely wrote letters home to his
folks, but did send brief telegrams saying system going well
please send more money.

Remember, that one of the odds in your favour is to deal with
the foreign currency exchange companies who are cheaper than the
high street banks. You can bet on that.